Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Oviedo win with a probability of 54.11%. A draw had a probability of 24% and a win for UD Ibiza had a probability of 21.87%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Oviedo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.84%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.42%), while for a UD Ibiza win it was 0-1 (6.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Real Oviedo would win this match.