Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cartagena win with a probability of 60.12%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Amorebieta had a probability of 17.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cartagena win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.39%) and 2-1 (9.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.73%), while for an Amorebieta win it was 0-1 (5.9%). The actual scoreline of 5-0 was predicted with a 1.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cartagena would win this match.