Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Elgin City win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Dumbarton had a probability of 30.13% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Elgin City win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.25%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (7.27%). The likeliest Dumbarton win was 1-2 (7.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood.