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Europa Conference League | Last 16 | 2nd Leg
Mar 17, 2022 at 8pm UK
Stadio Olimpico
Vitesse

Roma
1 - 1
Vitesse

Abraham (90+1')
Ibanez (18'), Zaniolo (72'), Mourinho (75'), El Shaarawy (89')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Wittek (62')
Grbic (42'), Rasmussen (58')

Preview: Roma vs. Vitesse - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Thursday's Europa Conference League clash between Roma and Vitesse, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Holding a one-goal lead from last week's first leg, Roma continue their quest for silverware at Stadio Olimpico on Thursday, in their Europa Conference League last-16 tie versus Vitesse.

Among the favourites to lift the trophy in the competition's inaugural campaign, the Giallorossi are unbeaten in six games ahead of their Dutch counterparts' arrival and will expect to seal a spot in Friday's quarter-final draw.


Match preview

Roma's Sergio Oliveira celebrates scoring their first goal with Gianluca Mancini and teammates on March 10, 2022© Reuters

Though they went down to 10 men during the second half, Roma's 1-0 victory in Arnhem last week puts the Italian heavyweights ahead on points in their last-16 contest, as they now return to the Eternal City.

Leading through a goal scored in first-half stoppage time by Porto loanee Sergio Oliveira - who was later sent off for receiving a second yellow card - Jose Mourinho's men are just 90 minutes away from a place in the last eight.

Even if a remarkable 6-1 defeat away to Bodo/Glimt in the Conference League's group stage dominated the headlines, the Giallorossi have taken to the Conference League in a manner befitting their status as one of few continental powerhouses taking part in Europe's third-tier tournament.

Indeed, they ultimately usurped the Norwegian champions at the top of Group C to qualify directly for the last 16; scoring 18 times in the process - the most of any team in the group stage. So, allied to last Thursday's win at the GelreDome, Roma's progress so far has been fairly serene.

They also have a flawless record of 13 wins from 13 in UEFA ties after winning away from home in the first leg, with the most recent instance coming in this season's qualification playoff win against Trabzonspor - and they are also a much sterner proposition when on Roman soil.

Sitting sixth in Serie A heading into the final stretch of the domestic season, Roma have won eight and lost just three of their 15 home matches in the league this term, and turned over Atalanta in their most recent outing at the Olimpico.

They may only have drawn 1-1 at lowly Udinese at the weekend, but Lorenzo Pellegrini's late equaliser at least clinched another point towards a potential European return and keeps their unbeaten run rolling on.

Vitesse Arnhem's Lois Openda celebrates scoring their first goal on February 17, 2022© Reuters

Despite defeat in the first leg, Vitesse manager Thomas Letsch has since insisted that his side only need to replicate their display during last Thursday's loss to be in with a chance of causing an upset in the Italian capital this week.

The German coach claimed that the Eredivisie outfit controlled most of the game at the GelreDome, but Roma were more clinical in taking one of their two major chances while the hosts' Lois Openda missed a gilt-edged opportunity at the other end.

However, Vitesse - participating in their first ever springtime European campaign - have lost all of the previous five UEFA ties in which they were beaten at home in the first leg. Indeed, the last four such exits have all come following a 1-0 reverse at their own headquarters.

Certainly, the odds are stacked against the side which finished runners-up to Rennes in Group G during the autumn. Accumulating an impressive 10 points, the highlight was undoubtedly a 1-0 home victory over Tottenham Hotspur, so causing a shock is within Vitesse's capabilities.

However, now sitting sixth in the league standings after Sunday's goalless draw at Heracles, their last away win came as far back as mid-January.

Roma Europa Conference League form:
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W

Roma form (all competitions):
  • D
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • D

Vitesse Europa Conference League form:
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • L
  • W
  • L

Vitesse form (all competitions):
  • D
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L
  • D



Team News

Roma coach Jose Mourinho reacts on February 8, 2022© Reuters

Jose Mourinho will be forced into at least one change from the first leg, as Sergio Oliveira must serve a suspension for his dismissal in the Netherlands, with Bryan Cristante most likely to take his place in the Roma midfield.

Both Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Marash Kumbulla return from one-match domestic bans, though, and are expected to feature on Thursday.

On the left flank of a probable 3-4-1-2 formation, young Nicola Zalewski will contest a place at wing-back with Matias Vina and Ainsley Maitland-Niles. Alternatively, the latter could deputise for Rick Karsdorp on the right if the Dutchman is rested.

Having started the first leg but then been rested at the weekend, both Matus Bero and top scorer Lois Openda should come back into the Vitesse side in midweek.

Meanwhile, Enzo Cornelisse and goalkeeper Eric Verstappen remain doubtful, and neither is expected to be at Thomas Letsch's disposal.

Roma possible starting lineup:
Patricio; Kumbulla, Smalling, Ibanez; Maitland-Niles, Veretout, Cristante, Vina; Mkhitaryan; Zaniolo, Abraham

Vitesse possible starting lineup:
Houwen; Dasa, Doekhi, Rasmussen, Wittek; Tronstad, Bazoer, Domgjoni; Huisman; Grbic, Openda


SM words green background

We say: Roma 1-0 Vitesse (Roma win 2-0 on aggregate)

Although they have only scored once in each of their last four games, Roma should make their greater individual quality show in this second leg, where they will wrap up qualification to the quarter-finals.

Vitesse have conceded relatively few goals over recent weeks, but not many visitors conquer the Gialorossi at the Olimpico.


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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Roma win with a probability of 60.72%. A draw had a probability of 25.5% and a win for Vitesse had a probability of 13.75%.

The most likely scoreline for a Roma win was 1-0 with a probability of 18.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (14.29%) and 2-1 (8.18%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (12.24%), while for a Vitesse win it was 0-1 (7.01%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10.7% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Roma vs Vitesse

Roma
82.7%
Draw
13.3%
Vitesse
4.1%
98
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