Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Al Ahli win with a probability of 42.63%. A win for Umm Salal had a probability of 34.55% and a draw had a probability of 22.81%.
The most likely scoreline for a Al Ahli win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.71%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.32%) and 2-0 (5.56%). The likeliest Umm Salal win was 1-2 (7.76%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.9%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.