Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Luton Town win with a probability of 51.6%. A draw had a probability of 24.88% and a win for Port Vale had a probability of 23.52%.
The most likely scoreline for a Luton Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.54%) and 2-0 (9.51%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.82%) , while for a Port Vale win it was 0-1 (7.34%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood.