Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletic Bilbao win with a probability of 41.41%. A win for Atletico Madrid had a probability of 32.32% and a draw had a probability of 26.26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Athletic Bilbao win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.25%). The likeliest Atletico Madrid win was 0-1 (8.95%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.4% likelihood.