Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shimizu S-Pulse win with a probability of 50.57%. A win for Albirex Niigata had a probability of 24.92% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shimizu S-Pulse win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.58%) and 2-0 (8.87%). The likeliest Albirex Niigata win was 0-1 (7.07%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.63%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Shimizu S-Pulse would win this match.