J1 League | Gameweek 4

Mar 2, 2025 at 5am UK

Minato Soccer Stadium

Nagoya Grampus
1 - 2
Machida Zelvia

Sato (20', 20')

FT(HT: 2-2)

Nishimura (13', 13'), Na (74', 74')
Kuwayama (82'), Kuwayama (82'), Shirasaki (88'), Shirasaki (88')

Coverage of the J1 League clash between Nagoya Grampus and Machida Zelvia.

Form, Standings, Stats

Nagoya Grampus

All competitions

Last Game: FC Tokyo 3-1 Nagoya Grampus
Wednesday, February 26 at 10am in J1 League

Goals
for

Machida Zelvia

All competitions

Last Game: Machida Zelvia 0-1 Tokyo Verdy
Wednesday, February 26 at 10am in J1 League

Goals
for

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Nagoya Grampus had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Nagoya Grampus win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Machida Zelvia would win this match.

Result
Nagoya Grampus	Draw	Machida Zelvia
31.54% ( 0.11)	27.22% ( 0.01)	41.24% ( -0.11)

Both teams to score 49.38% (

0.02)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

44.09% (

55.91% (

-0.01)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

22.98% (

77.02% (

-0)

Nagoya Grampus Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

67.35% (

0.08)

32.64% (

-0.08)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

30.81% (

0.09)

69.19% (

-0.09)

Machida Zelvia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.31% (

-0.06)

26.68% (

0.06)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.06% (

-0.08)

61.93% (

0.08)

Score Analysis

Nagoya Grampus 31.54%

Machida Zelvia 41.23%

Draw 27.21%

Nagoya Grampus	Draw	Machida Zelvia
1-0 @ 9.75% ( 0.02) 2-1 @ 7.21% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 5.46% ( 0.02) 3-1 @ 2.69% ( 0.01) 3-0 @ 2.04% ( 0.01) 3-2 @ 1.78% ( 0.01) Other @ 2.62% Total : 31.54%	1-1 @ 12.88% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 8.71% ( -0) 2-2 @ 4.76% ( 0) Other @ 0.86% Total : 27.21%	0-1 @ 11.5% ( -0.02) 1-2 @ 8.51% ( -0.01) 0-2 @ 7.6% ( -0.03) 1-3 @ 3.75% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 3.35% ( -0.02) 2-3 @ 2.1% ( -0) 1-4 @ 1.24% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 1.11% ( -0.01) Other @ 2.08% Total : 41.23%