Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Machida Zelvia win with a probability of 41.24%. A win for Nagoya Grampus had a probability of 31.54% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Machida Zelvia win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.51%) and 0-2 (7.6%). The likeliest Nagoya Grampus win was 1-0 (9.75%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Machida Zelvia would win this match.