Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Hungary win with a probability of 39.9%. A win for Slovenia had a probability of 32.04% and a draw had a probability of 28.06%.
The most likely scoreline for a Hungary win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.46%) and 2-0 (7.19%). The likeliest Slovenia win was 0-1 (10.26%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.88%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 11.5% likelihood.