Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Andorra win with a probability of 64.25%. A draw had a probability of 22.35% and a win for Iraq had a probability of 13.42%.
The most likely scoreline for a Andorra win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (14.04%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.04%) , while for a Iraq win it was 1-0 (5.71%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood.