Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Panathinaikos win with a probability of 39.78%. A win for AEK Athens had a probability of 31.34% and a draw had a probability of 28.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Panathinaikos win was 1-0 with a probability of 13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.93%) and 2-0 (7.75%). The likeliest AEK Athens win was 0-1 (11.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Panathinaikos would win this match.