Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a PAOK win with a probability of 48.31%. A draw had a probability of 26.5% and a win for Asteras Tripolis had a probability of 25.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a PAOK win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.37%) and 1-2 (9.08%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.49%), while for an Asteras Tripolis win it was 1-0 (8.6%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that PAOK would win this match.