Primeira Liga strugglers Gil Vicente welcome a Pacos de Ferreira side high on confidence on Tuesday night in league action.
The visitors come into this game hoping to record a fifth consecutive league win and continue a run which has seen them rise up to fifth in the Primeira Liga table, sitting just five points behind Benfica in third place.
Match preview
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Gil Vicente face one of their toughest challenges so far this season in their attempt to escape the relegation zone, but due to how tight this end of the division is, one win could vastly change the landscape and lift them out of the bottom two.
Despite picking up just 13 points from 15 league games so far this season, Ricardo Soares's side do sit just one point adrift of Boavista in 15th, and remarkably are just two points worse off than 12th-placed Rio Ave, meaning that one positive result could quickly shift things in the favour of Gil Vicente.
However, they will not come into this game with large amounts of confidence, having lost their last three league games, including disappointing losses against fellow bottom-half teams in Maritimo and basement side Farense.
The recent game at home to Maritimo looked set to finish 0-0 until a late Lucas Africo goal snatched all three points for the visitors.
In the game away at Farense, Gil Vicente trailed 2-1 at half time and then failed to capitalise on a red card shown to Farense forward Lica on the hour mark as the match ended 3-1.
It is undoubtedly in attack where Os Gilistas have struggled, having scored just 10 goals from their 15 league games this season, with only Belenenses scoring fewer than this so far.
However, a strong defensive record does provide more encouragement for Soares. Only one side outside of the league's top six have conceded fewer than Gil Vicente's 17, showing that they should be able to pick up their form if they can find a few more goals.
This defensive resilience was shown in their most recent league fixture against Braga, with Iuri Medeiros scoring the only goal of the game after 73 minutes to seal a narrow victory for Braga. Despite losing this game, the side from Barcelos did show an ability to hold a high quality attack for the majority of the game.
However, they come up against a side who are in a fantastic run of form. Winning their last four league games, Pacos de Ferreira have become a force to be reckoned with in the Primeira Liga in the last few weeks and they pose an extremely difficult challenge to the side battling for safety.
In this run, Os Castores have scored nine goals and have not conceded a single goal at the other end, beginning with 2-0 wins over Rio Ave and Maritimo.
However, the most impressive result out of these four wins was a 2-0 victory at home to Braga, which saw Pepa's side move just two points behind the fourth-placed team. Goals from Bruno Costa and Helder Ferreira sealed a fantastic win for Pacos de Ferreira.
They then followed this up most recently with a 3-0 thrashing away at mid-table side Maritimo, with Costa getting on the scoresheet again as well as Luiz Carlos and Luther Singh to seal their fourth consecutive league win and eighth of the season in the top flight, just three wins fewer than they managed in the entirety of last season.
Thanks to their four consecutive clean sheets, Pepa's men now sit second in the Primeira Liga's defensive charts, with only league leaders Sporting conceding fewer than their 12 goals.
This does not look good for Gil Vicente, who already struggle to find goals, and could be the decider in this encounter.
Gil Vicente Primeira Liga form: LWDLLL
Gil Vicente form (all competitions): DLWLLL
Pacos de Ferreira Primeira Liga form: DDWWWW
Team News
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Senegalese defender Souleymane Aw has not featured for Gil Vicente since his arrival from Beziers in the summer, and will remain unavailable for this game.
The home side will also be without young Brazilian forward Miullen, who remains out with a knee injury, while defender Diogo Silva is also sidelined with an injury picked up at the beginning of the season.
New Gil Vicente signing Pedrinho featured from the bench in the cup loss to Porto, and he should be awarded his first start for his new club in this game.
Goalkeeper Denis is likely to return between the sticks for the hosts, after Quentin Beunardeau was given a start in cup action last Friday.
The away side should have a full squad to pick from apart from Jorge Silva, who remains out with a long-term injury.
Forward Douglas Tanque was brought off with an injury concern in the last match for Pacos de Ferreira, but he is expected to be fit to play with no serious injury.
Bruno Costa will be high on confidence having scored in the last three Primeira Liga games for his side from midfield, adding more threat to the Pacos de Ferreira attack.
Gil Vicente possible starting lineup:
Denis; Pereira, Nogueira, Fernandes, Talocha; Goncalves, Afonso, Pedrinho; Lourency, Lino, Baraye
Pacos de Ferreira possible starting lineup:
Jordi; Fonseca, Baixinho, Gonzago, Rebocho; Carlos, Eustaquio, Costa; Amaral, Tanque, Ferreira
We say: Gil Vicente 0-2 Pacos de Ferreira
We can see Pacos de Ferreira making it five league wins on the bounce in this game against a side who are lacking any real form. An excellent defence coming up against one of the league's weakest attacks could mean a fifth clean sheet in a row, while Pepa's dangerous attacking line should be able to find goals against this Gil Vicente side.
Top betting tip
Sam Varley
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Pacos de Ferreira win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Gil Vicente had a probability of 28.62% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Pacos de Ferreira win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.5%) and 1-2 (8.34%). The likeliest Gil Vicente win was 1-0 (10.31%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Pacos de Ferreira would win this match.
