Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Metaloglobus win with a probability of 41.36%. A win for Mladost Lucani had a probability of 29.64% and a draw had a probability of 29.01%.
The most likely scoreline for a Metaloglobus win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.34%) and 2-0 (7.26%). The likeliest Mladost Lucani win was 0-1 (9.83%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.77%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.3% likelihood.