Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Fratria win with a probability of 63.72%. A draw had a probability of 21.44% and a win for Spartak Varna had a probability of 14.79%.
The most likely scoreline for a Fratria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (11.33%) and 2-1 (10.4%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.72%) , while for a Spartak Varna win it was 0-1 (5.13%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood.