Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Spartak Trnava win with a probability of 37.6%. A win for CSKA 1948 Sofia had a probability of 36.87% and a draw had a probability of 25.48%.
The most likely scoreline for a Spartak Trnava win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.71%) and 0-2 (5.27%). The likeliest CSKA 1948 Sofia win was 2-1 (7.98%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.91%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 7.7% likelihood.