Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Marine AFC win with a probability of 50.52%. A win for Stockton Town had a probability of 25.57% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Marine AFC win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.81%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.63%) and 0-2 (8.39%). The likeliest Stockton Town win was 1-0 (6.59%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.26%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.1% likelihood.