Conference League Gameweek 1
Oct 15, 2026 5.45pm

Lugano vs Red Star Belgrade - Match Guide, Data Analysis, Standings

Form, Standings, Stats

Lugano

All competitions

Red Star Belgrade

All competitions

Data analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats, suggests the most likely outcome of this match is a Red Star Belgrade win with a probability of 46.6%. A win for Lugano has a probability of 31.53% and a draw has a probability of 21.91%.

The most likely scoreline for a Red Star Belgrade win is 1-2 with a probability of 9.07%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome are 0-1 (7.45%) and 0-2 (6.17%). The likeliest Lugano win is 2-1 (7.2%) , while for a drawn scoreline it is 1-1 (9.15%).

Result

Lugano 31.53% ▲ (+0.04)
Draw 21.91% ▼ (-0.02)
Red Star Belgrade 46.6% ▼ (-0.02)

Both Teams to Score: 

61.24% ▲ (+0.04)

Goals

Over 1.5 83.5% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 1.5 16.5% ▼ (-0.02)
Over 2.5 64.52% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 35.48% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 41.46% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 3.5 58.54% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 4.5 26.81% ▲ (+0.02)
Under 4.5 73.19% ▼ (-0.02)

First Half Winner

Lugano 21.99%
Draw 40.01%
Red Star Belgrade 37.99%

Team To Score First

Lugano 34.83%
No Goal 4.06% ▼ (-0.02)
Red Star Belgrade 61.11% ▲ (+0.01)

Corners

Over 8 54.67%
Equal 8 11.49%
Under 8 33.84%
Over 9 43.25%
Equal 9 11.42%
Under 9 45.33%
Over 10.5 32.79%
Under 10.5 67.21%

Lugano Goals

Over 1.5 39.3% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 1.5 60.7% ▼ (-0.03)
Over 2.5 18.17% ▲ (+0.04)
Under 2.5 81.83% ▼ (-0.04)
Over 3.5 6.9% ▲ (+0.03)
Under 3.5 93.1% ▼ (-0.03)

Red Star Belgrade Goals

Over 0.5 78.26%
Under 0.5 21.74%
Over 1.5 50.85%
Under 1.5 49.15%
Over 2.5 26.46%
Under 2.5 73.54%
Over 3.5 11.16%
Under 3.5 88.84%

Score analysis

Lugano 31.52%
Draw 21.9%
Red Star Belgrade 46.61%
Lugano
2-1 @ 7.2%
1-0 @ 5.02% ▼ (-0.02)
2-0 @ 3.67%
3-1 @ 3.61% ▲ (+0.01)
3-2 @ 3%
3-0 @ 2.57%
Other @ 6.45% ▲ (+0.03)
Total : 31.52%
Draw
1-1 @ 9.15% ▼ (-0.01)
2-2 @ 6.15%
0-0 @ 4.06% ▼ (-0.02)
3-3 @ 2.09%
Other @ 0.45%
Total : 21.9%
Red Star Belgrade
1-2 @ 9.07%
0-1 @ 7.45%
0-2 @ 6.17%
1-3 @ 4.88%
0-3 @ 4.22%
2-3 @ 4.11%
Other @ 10.71%
Total : 46.61%