Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Martigues win with a probability of 60.17%. A draw had a probability of 22% and a win for Bourgoin-Jallieu had a probability of 17.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Martigues win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.72%) and 1-2 (9.9%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.44%), while for a Bourgoin-Jallieu win it was 1-0 (5.51%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.