Corinthians return home on Saturday looking to extend their unbeaten run at Corinthians Arena to nine straight games in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A when they host Cuiaba.
Timao maintained their sixth-place standing despite losing 3-0 on Wednesday to Atletico Mineiro, while Dourado have gone scoreless in back-to-back league fixtures after dropping a 1-0 decision to Ceara last weekend.
Match preview
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The emotions and intensity that we have seen from Corinthians over the past couple of games were practically invisible earlier this week as they were handled relatively easily by the league leaders.
Atletico's strategy of fouling and preventing this speedy team from coming at you in transition seemed to do the trick, as they committed 20 fouls in the match, and Sylvinho and his team were not able to make those set-pieces count or get into any kind of rhythm.
They will be happy to be back home where they have not conceded a goal in three consecutive league fixtures versus Fluminense, Chapecoense and Fortaleza.
Since capturing their last league championship in 2017, this side have not been able to contend for the title, finishing in the bottom half of the table in two of their previous three campaigns, but they have put together a solid bounce-back effort so far this year, sitting in sixth and a qualifying spot for the Copa Libertadores next year.
Clearly, opposing teams have a lot of respect for the speed and quality that Corinthians possess on the counter, with Time do Povo being fouled 109 times in their previous five encounters.
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No matter who they play or what might be at stake, Cuiaba continue to stay consistent in their conservative approach with an emphasis on team defence.
That patient and tactical way of playing has been a conscious choice which Jorginho made heading into their first-ever appearance in Serie A, and it has them in a comfortable position to remain there for at least one more year.
With a six-point cushion above the relegation zone, they are in a safe spot, but there is also a real possibility that they could be involved in the Copa Sudamericana next year, currently in 10th which would earn them a place in that competition in 2022.
Even though it has not affected their standing all that much, we are seeing this team play a lot more passively over the past few weeks than we did earlier in the season as they have only scored one goal since an own-goal from Nathan Silva gave them an early lead to Atletico Mineiro in their final match of October.
In their previous five league contests in all competitions, they have fired fewer than three shots on goal on three occasions, and they have not scored multiple goals in a game since a 2-2 draw versus Gremio on October 6.
Even though this is the first appearance for the club in Serie A, they have several players with top-flight experience who have helped this side achieve some good things, including Yuri, Clayson and Camilo, who are all on loan from Fluminense, Bahia and Lyon respectively.
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Team News
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Adson got the winner the last time Corinthians faced Cuiaba in late July, with the other goal coming courtesy of Roni, as both of them are tied for third in goals for the team this year with three.
Cassio has not conceded in his last two matches played at Corinthians Arena with the team captain maintaining nine clean sheets so far this year, just one behind Daniel and Cleiton.
Sylvinho made only one change to his starting 11 against Galo as Gustavo Silva replaced Gabriel Pereira in the midfield.
Jonathan Cafu and Walter are two more great temporary signings who have made a significant impact this season for Cuiaba, with both players joining the team on loan from Corinthians as Cafu has three goals so far and Walter has 12 clean sheets, just two back of the lead held by Everson.
Rafael Elias will be suspended for this encounter as the 22-year-old on loan from Palmeiras received another caution last weekend, ruling him out of this clash.
Last Sunday, Marllon replaced Alan Empereur at centre-back, while Clayson, Camilo and Jenison were inserted into the starting 11 rather than Rafael Gava, Elton and Felipe Marques.
Corinthians possible starting lineup:
Cassio; Santos, Gil, Victor, Fagner; Gabriel; Pereira, Giuliano, Vitinho, Jo; Augusto
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Uendel, Paulao, Marllon, Lucas; Clayson, Gava, Yuri, Cafu; Jenison, Elton
We say: Corinthians 1-1 Cuiaba
It has been a while since Corinthians have conceded in front of their home fans, but there are a couple of Cuiaba loanees who should have some extra motivation for this one to prove that they deserve more playing time with Timao when they return.
Corinthians have done just enough to win at home, with a single goal in three straight fixtures, but Cuiaba are a side who are positionally sound at the back and rarely allow a lot of good chances, so we expect that this contest will be a stalemate.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Corinthians win with a probability of 61.52%. A draw had a probability of 23.3% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 15.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Corinthians win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.94%) and 2-1 (9.28%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (6.25%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Corinthians would win this match.
