Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Tuna Luso win with a probability of 46.95%. A draw had a probability of 26.91% and a win for Juventude had a probability of 26.14%.
The most likely scoreline for a Tuna Luso win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.19%) and 2-0 (8.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.54%) , while for a Juventude win it was 0-1 (8.36%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.