Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santa Catarina win with a probability of 60.66%. A draw had a probability of 23.88% and a win for Iape had a probability of 15.46%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santa Catarina win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (12.12%) and 2-1 (9.95%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.76%) , while for a Iape win it was 0-1 (6.21%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 12.1% likelihood.