Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Maringa win with a probability of 75.1%. A draw had a probability of 16.8% and a win for Uniao Carmolandense had a probability of 8.11%.
The most likely scoreline for a Maringa win was 2-0 with a probability of 15.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (13.57%) and 3-0 (11.14%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.8%), while for a Uniao Carmolandense win it was 0-1 (3.52%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Maringa would win this match.