Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independente AP win with a probability of 53.75%. A draw had a probability of 25.39% and a win for Ivinhema had a probability of 20.86%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independente AP win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.49%) and 1-2 (8.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.61%) , while for a Ivinhema win it was 1-0 (7.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.