Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto BA win with a probability of 42.61%. A draw had a probability of 29.84% and a win for Serra Branca had a probability of 27.55%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto BA win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.72%) and 2-0 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.51%) , while for a Serra Branca win it was 0-1 (9.87%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood.