Copa del Rey | First Round
Nov 1, 2023 at 11am UK
Estadio La Salera

Naxara
1 - 2
Melilla

Lora (90+1')
Martinez (27'), Merino (53'), Parrado (88')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Antonio Gonzalez (1'), Garcia (49')
Perez (31'), Masogo (87')
Coverage of the Copa del Rey First Round clash between Naxara and Melilla.

Form, Standings, Stats

Naxara

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Melilla

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Last Game: Real Madrid 6-1 Melilla
Thursday, December 6 at 3.15pm in Copa del Rey
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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Melilla win with a probability of 35.68%. A win for Naxara had a probability of 34.66% and a draw had a probability of 29.7%.

The most likely scoreline for a Melilla win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.26%) and 0-2 (6.86%). The likeliest Naxara win was 1-0 (12.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Melilla would win this match.

Result
NaxaraDrawMelilla
34.66% (-0.046999999999997 -0.05)29.65% (0.02 0.02)35.68% (0.027000000000001 0.03)
Both teams to score 43.06% (-0.052999999999997 -0.05)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
36% (-0.064 -0.06)64% (0.064 0.06)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
16.81% (-0.045999999999999 -0.05)83.18% (0.045000000000002 0.05)
Naxara Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.28% (-0.066000000000003 -0.07)34.72% (0.065999999999995 0.07)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
28.55% (-0.07 -0.07)71.45% (0.069999999999993 0.07)
Melilla Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
65.97% (-0.016000000000005 -0.02)34.03% (0.015000000000001 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
29.29% (-0.015999999999998 -0.02)70.71% (0.016000000000005 0.02)
Score Analysis
    Naxara 34.65%
    Melilla 35.68%
    Draw 29.65%
NaxaraDrawMelilla
1-0 @ 12.49%
2-1 @ 7.13% (-0.012 -0.01)
2-0 @ 6.61% (-0.008 -0.01)
3-1 @ 2.51% (-0.0089999999999999 -0.01)
3-0 @ 2.33% (-0.0070000000000001 -0.01)
3-2 @ 1.35% (-0.006 -0.01)
Other @ 2.23%
Total : 34.65%
1-1 @ 13.47%
0-0 @ 11.81% (0.030000000000001 0.03)
2-2 @ 3.84% (-0.008 -0.01)
Other @ 0.52%
Total : 29.65%
0-1 @ 12.73% (0.02 0.02)
1-2 @ 7.26% (-0.0019999999999998 -0)
0-2 @ 6.86% (0.0099999999999998 0.01)
1-3 @ 2.61% (-0.0020000000000002 -0)
0-3 @ 2.47% (0.0020000000000002 0)
2-3 @ 1.38% (-0.0030000000000001 -0)
Other @ 2.37%
Total : 35.68%

rhs 2.0


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