Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 46.5%. A win for Cultural Leonesa had a probability of 28.95% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 0-1 with a probability of 9.45%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.34%) and 0-2 (7.63%). The likeliest Cultural Leonesa win was 1-0 (7.16%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Almeria would win this match.