Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a British Virgin Islands win with a probability of 38.59%. A win for Turks and Caicos had a probability of 38.14% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a British Virgin Islands win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.35%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.38%) and 2-0 (5.18%). The likeliest Turks and Caicos win was 1-2 (8.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.28%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that British Virgin Islands would win this match.