The number one team at the moment in Major League Soccer, Los Angeles FC, can extend their unbeaten run to seven games in all competitions when they battle a side that finished the 2021 regular season as the top team in the Western Conference, the Colorado Rapids.
LA have 23 points this year after 12 fixtures, while the Burgundy Boys are one of seven teams unbeaten at home this year, having earned 11 of their 12 points so far at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
Match preview
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2021 was a breakthrough campaign for Robin Fraser and his men, who finished the regular season with a club record of 61 points, eclipsing the old mark from 2016 (58).
A year on from that achievement, we have yet to see the same kind of success from them on a consistent basis, with only one victory domestically since the beginning of April.
Three of their final four league fixtures this month will be at home, where they have looked incredibly compact and hard to break down, collecting four clean sheets in five fixtures this year, outscoring the opposition by a count of 8-1.
At the beginning of the campaign, Fraser expressed a desire for his players to do a better job at holding the ball with more precise passing and fluidity, which has not materialized as often as he would have hoped, possessing the ball over 50% of the time in only two matches this season.
While still holding out hope that their new signing could become a dependable number nine, the core of this team under Fraser has always been a strong squad, capable of cutting you open in transition and making the most of their set-piece opportunities.
Since Fraser took charge of this side in August 2019, the Burgundy Boys have been able to put poor performances behind them quickly, failing to drop more than two MLS fixtures consecutively under his tenure.
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The season may still be fresh, but Los Angeles FC continue to look like the perennial powerhouse that we all suspected they would be when they won the Supporters' Shield in 2019.
Steve Cherundolo could not have envisioned a better opening to his first season as an MLS manager with his side sitting first overall, suffering only one defeat domestically so far this year.
Last Saturday, the Black and Gold put two past the Eastern Conference-leading Philadelphia Union, who are among the top defensive units in the league, and allowed only six goals domestically before that fixture, which ended in a 2-2 draw.
While leading the league in goals with 23, Cherundolo has criticized his team for being a little too cute inside the final third, firing 20 shots on target in their previous three league encounters and scoring twice in each of those games.
So far in 2022, the depth of LAFC has been evident throughout their opening 10 games, with their off-season signings paying huge dividends.
LA have often been too much for numerous teams to contain, with a per-game goal differential of 1.40, the second-best MLS mark since 2013.
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Team News
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Rapids goalkeeper William Yarbrough has only conceded one goal at home this season on 17 shots on target, while two of the three goals scored by former LAFC midfielder Mark-Anthony Kaye in 2022 have come at Dick's Sporting Goods Park.
Leading goalscorer Diego Rubio missed their previous encounter through suspension, Braian Galvan is out with a right knee issue, Aboubacar Keita has a torn ACL in his right knee, Oliver Larraz is dealing with a right leg problem, while Jack Price and Danny Wilson will be questionable due to hamstring injuries.
Newcomer Gyasi Zardes continues to search for his first goal with the Burgundy Boys having started as their lone striker in their previous two fixtures, while Jonathan Lewis had a brace in a 5-2 home win over the Black and Gold last year, and Collen Warner added a tally himself in that match.
LA fought back twice from a one-goal deficit versus Philly, with Kwadwo Opoku notching his third of the year, putting him one back of Carlos Vela for the team lead, while an 82nd-minute effort from Franco Escobar earned them a single point, his first with the club.
There are still numerous Los Angeles players doubtful for this encounter, including Eddie Segura (right knee), Erik Duenas (left knee) and Julian Gaines (pelvis).
The club will also be without Brian Rodriguez (right hamstring) along with Ismael Tajouri-Shradi (left quad), while Doneil Henry and Jesus Murillo will be questionable with left hamstring injuries.
Jose Cifuentes collected his third assist of the year on the opening goal against the Union, putting him in the lead for LA in that department.
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Esteves, Trusty, Moor, Abubakar; Acosta, Kaye; Lewis, Warner, Barrios; Zardes
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Crepeau; Hollingshead, Ibeagha, Fall, Palacios; Sanchez; Cifuentes, Acosta, Opoku; Arango, Vela
We say: Colorado Rapids 2-3 Los Angeles FC
These two teams have built a solid foundation, and they are both collectively strong, which should be more than enough to see them each make the playoffs this season.
Ultimately, we believe that the attacking depth of LA is just a little better than the Burgundy Boys, whose new number nine, Zardes, is still trying to get his feet wet in Colorado.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colorado Rapids win with a probability of 39.39%. A win for Los Angeles FC had a probability of 34.61% and a draw had a probability of 26%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colorado Rapids win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.53%) and 2-0 (6.67%). The likeliest Los Angeles FC win was 0-1 (8.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.35%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colorado Rapids would win this match.
Top tip
Joel Lefevre
