Los Angeles FC need to beat Colorado Rapids on the final day of the regular Major League Soccer season to secure a place in the playoffs.
LAFC are currently ninth in the Western Conference, two points off the coveted top seven, while the Rapids are third and could still take top spot.
Match preview
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LAFC have reached the MLS playoffs in all three of their previous seasons in existence, so failure to qualify this year would be a big disappointment.
If they can get three points at DSG Park, they would take advantage of whoever drops points in the meeting between Los Angeles Galaxy (seventh) and Minnesota United (fifth) or the Vancouver Whitecaps (sixth) who host Western Conference leaders Seattle Sounders.
A 1-1 draw against the Whitecaps on Tuesday – in which LAFC had 26 shots but were wasteful with their opportunities – could end up proving very costly indeed.
Bob Bradley's side head into 'Decision Day' on a six-match unbeaten streak – their longest run without defeat this season – but have not kept a clean sheet in their last 10 away games.
LAFC did beat Colorado Rapids 2-1 earlier this season though and have won four of the five meetings between the two clubs.
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The Rapids have already confirmed a playoff place for the second consecutive season, but are aiming for first place in the Western Conference which would earn them a bye to the second round.
Dominique Badji struck to secure a 1-0 victory over Houston Dynamo last weekend, which leaves Robin Fraser's side a point behind current leaders Seattle Sounders.
The Rapids are ending the regular campaign in inconsistent form; they have four wins and three defeats in their last seven matches and have not won back-to-back games since August.
However, they are unbeaten in 15 matches on home turf, with their only defeat at DSG Park this season coming all the way back in April.
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Team News
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Rapids boss Robin Fraser has rotated his side in recent weeks in preparation for the playoffs, so top scorer Michael Barrios could be one of a few players to drop to the bench on Sunday.
Dominique Badji has scored in each of his last three starts and should keep his place upfront.
Kellyn Acosta, Braian Galvan and Keegan Rosenberry are all sidelined through injury for the hosts.
Eduard Atuesta, Francisco Ginella and Eddie Segura are among the players unavailable due to injury for LAFC.
Carlos Vela has made substitute appearances in the last two matches after a two-month spell on the sidelines, and Bob Bradley could risk starting him as he looks for inspiration in such a crucial fixture.
Jose Cifuentes could also come back into the side to add more attacking spark, with a lot of the burden in the final third currently being shouldered by Cristian Arango, who has seven goals in his last five games.
Colorado Rapids possible starting lineup:
Yarbrough; Beitashour, Abubakar, Wilson, Trusty, Esteves; Namli, Price, Bassett; Badji, Rubio
Los Angeles FC possible starting lineup:
Blackman; Fall, Murillo, Ibeagha; Moon-Hwan, Blessing, Palacios, Farfan; Cifuentes; Arango, Rodriguez
We say: Colorado Rapids 1-1 Los Angeles FC
It would seem a big ask for LAFC to get the three points they need against a Colorado Rapids side still keen for victory themselves. If the hosts heavily rotate, the Californians may be in with a chance, but we think it is more likely that this game will end level.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Colorado Rapids win with a probability of 47.17%. A win for Los Angeles FC had a probability of 28.4% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Colorado Rapids win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.48%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.39%) and 2-0 (7.74%). The likeliest Los Angeles FC win was 0-1 (7.04%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Colorado Rapids would win this match.
