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Chapecoense
Brasileiro | Gameweek 23
Oct 3, 2021 at 8pm UK
Arena Conda
Sao Paulo

Chapecoense
1 - 1
Sao Paulo

Mike (76')
Gomes (20')
FT(HT: 0-1)
Rigoni (36')
Galeano (68')

Preview: Chapecoense vs. Sao Paulo - prediction, team news, lineups

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Brasileiro clash between Chapecoense and Sao Paulo, including predictions, team news and possible lineups.

Chapecoense are running out of time to save themselves from Brasileiro relegation as they prepare for Monday's visit of Sao Paulo.

The Big Green are bottom of the table with 22 matches played, while Sao Paulo are 13th following back-to-back draws.


Match preview

Sao Paulo's Luan celebrates scoring their first goal against Palmeiras, pictured on August 10, 2021© Reuters

Back in the Brazilian top flight this season after gaining promotion last time out, 2021 has not gone to plan for Chapecoense as they have just one win to their name all season.

That victory came three games ago away at Bragantino, but they have since lost 2-0 to Palmeiras and 1-0 to Ceara.

The gap on safety now stands at 14 points and relegation seems inevitable, though a couple of wins over the next week may just give Pintado's charges some renewed hope.

Sao Paulo are themselves only four points and four places above the dropzone on the back of stalemates with America Mineiro and Atletico Mineiro.

Sao Paulo coach Hernan Crespo during the match on May 5, 2021© Reuters

Hernan Crespo's men failed to score in either match and their tally of 18 goals is the fifth worst in the division.

The visitors will be looking up the table rather than down after three games without defeat, and they enter this gameweek just six points off a Copa Libertadores qualifying spot.

These sides played out a 1-1 draw in the reverse fixture four months ago, a game in which Rodrigo Nestor's red card proved costly as Chapecoense battled back for a rare point.

Sao Paulo had won the previous two meetings by a 7-0 aggregate scoreline, however, and they enter this latest contest at Arena Conda as favourites to take all three points.

Chapecoense Brasileiro form:
  • D
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • L
  • L

Sao Paulo Brasileiro form:
  • W
  • D
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D

Sao Paulo form (all competitions):
  • D
  • L
  • L
  • W
  • D
  • D



Team News

Gabriel has missed Sao Paulo's last two matches but is in contention for a place in the starting lineup here, as is Jonathan Calleri after making three appearances from the bench.

Igor Vinicius sustained an injury last time out and is not expected to be available on Monday, while Luis Orejuela and William are also sidelined.

Sao Paulo are goalless in their last two matches, but Emiliano Rigoni and Luciano should get the nod up top.

As for Chapecoense, they are without suspended trio Moises Ribeiro, Jordan and Lima. Pedro Perotti is also absent through injury.

Pintado's options are therefore limited and a similar XI to the one that started against Ceara can be expected.

Chapecoense possible starting lineup:
Keiller; Ribeiro, Kadu, Ignacio, Busanello; Mike, Santos, Melz, Gomes, Silva; Ramon

Sao Paulo possible starting lineup:
Volpi; Arboleda, Miranda, Leo; Galliano, Gabriel, Liziero, Nestor, Sara; Rigoni, Luciano


SM words green background

We say: Chapecoense 0-1 Sao Paulo

Chapecoense have surely accepted their relegation fate, but opponents Sao Paulo still have plenty to play for.

After going successive games without netting, we are backing the visitors to end that scoreless drought and pick up a much-needed win on Monday.



Top tip

Our expert tipster partners at Sporita.com are predicting a double chance bet on a home win or an away win in this match. Click here to find out what else they are predicting for this game and for more of their tried-and-tested football tips.Home/Away:data



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Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 44.84%. A win for Chapecoense had a probability of 27.94% and a draw had a probability of 27.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.77%) and 0-2 (8.6%). The likeliest Chapecoense win was 1-0 (9.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.81%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.8% likelihood.


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Game History

How you voted: Chapecoense vs Sao Paulo

Chapecoense
20.0%
Draw
20.0%
Sao Paulo
60.0%
5
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Tables header RHS
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1InternacionalInternacional22003126
2JuventudeJuventude21103124
3Cruzeiro21104314
4BragantinoBragantino21104314
5FortalezaFortaleza21103214
6Athletico ParanaenseAthletico PR21014223
7Gremio21013213
8FlamengoFlamengo11002113
9Vasco da GamaVasco21013303
10Bahia21013303
11PalmeirasPalmeiras21011103
12CriciumaCriciuma10101101
13Atletico Mineiro10100001
14Fluminense201134-11
15Corinthians201102-21
16Botafogo100123-10
17Sao Paulo100112-10
18Atletico GoianienseAtletico GO100112-10
19Vitoria100101-10
20Cuiaba100104-40


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