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Belarusian Premier League | Gameweek 9
May 17, 2020 at 1pm UK
Spartak Stadium

Belshina
1 - 1
Vitebsk

Glebko (63' pen.)
Kuchinski (4'), Bordukov (9'), Bashilov (30'), Nechaev (47'), Yasykevich (82'), Solanovich (90+1'), Glebko (90+4')
Yasykevich (90')
FT(HT: 0-0)
Cesar (78')
Nazarenko (17'), Carioca (25'), Matveenko (29'), Cesar (32')

Preview: Belshina vs. Vitebsk - predictions, form guide, head-to-head record

Sports Mole previews Sunday's Vysheyshaya Liga clash between Belshina and Vitebsk, including predictions, form guides and head-to-head records.

Bottom-of-the-table Belshina will play host to Vitebsk in the Belarusian Premier League at the Spartak Stadium on Sunday lunchtime.

Belshina are without a win from their first eight games of the 2020 campaign, while Vitebsk currently lie 10th in the table heading into gameweek nine.


Match preview

Neman's Andrei Vasilyev in action with Belshina's Yevgeni Skoblikov on April 10, 2020© Reuters

Belshina have been handed a harsh welcome back to life in the Belarusian top flight after a three-year stint in the second division.

The recently-appointed Dmitri Migas witnessed his side succumb to a 2-1 defeat at the hands of Isloch last time out, their third successive defeat in the Vysheyshaya Liga.

Last season's Belarusian second division champions have only picked up two points from a possible 24 thus far, and Belshina's -9 goal difference is currently the worst in the league.

Migas's side have netted a mere six goals during the 2020 campaign and are without a clean sheet in the early stages of the season.

However, Belshina could rise above fellow strugglers Smolevichi with their first victory of the season on Sunday, although only two of their six strikes have been scored in front of their own fans.

Vitebsk are also without a win in their last three Vysheyshaya Liga matches but a strong set of results earlier in the season sees them sit on 11 points after eight matches.

Sergey Yasinsky's side have amassed three wins, two draws and three losses at this stage of the campaign, and Vitebsk managed to end Shakhtyor Soligorsk's three-game winning run last weekend as the two clubs played out a goalless draw.

Like their opponents, Vitebsk have also found the net six times in the Belarusian top flight thus far, with two of their strikes coming on the road against Smolevichi and Slutsk respectively.

Vitebsk's most recent victory saw them enjoy a 1-0 triumph over current champions Dinamo Brest courtesy of Ion Nicolaescu's penalty, but there is still plenty of work to be done if Yasinsky's men are to improve on last season's 13th-placed finish.

Belshina Vysheyshaya Liga form: LDDLLL

Vitebsk Vysheyshaya Liga form: WDWLLD


Head To Head

Sunday's clash represents the 31st meeting between the two sides since 1996, with Belshina picking up 16 wins compared to Vitebsk's nine.

Vitebsk enjoyed two 1-0 victories during the 2016 campaign when the sides last met - and Belshina have failed to take all three points against their opponents since 2011.

Interestingly, Vitebsk have netted one goal in the last four meetings between the two clubs, but Yasinsky's side had failed to score in the previous six clashes between 2010 and 2015.


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We say: Belshina 0-1 Vitebsk

Belshina are at risk of a swift return to the Belarusian second division should results not improve soon, and even though Migas's men boast the better overall record against Vitebsk, it is difficult to go against the away side given the early-season form of both clubs.



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Written by
Ben Knapton

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Belshina win with a probability of 43.9%. A win for Vitebsk had a probability of 29.86% and a draw had a probability of 26.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Belshina win was 1-0 with a probability of 11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.94%) and 2-0 (7.88%). The likeliest Vitebsk win was 0-1 (8.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.47%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.5% likelihood.


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Tables header RHS
TeamPWDLFAGDPTS
1Dinamo Minsk30208250133768
2Neman30205545192665
3Torpedo-BelAZTorpedo-BelAZ30188445212462
4Dinamo BrestDinamo Brest30147962372549
5Vitebsk30145113325847
6Gomel30111183728944
7IslochIsloch30118113630641
8BATE BorisovBATE30117123838040
9SlutskSlutsk30116132641-1539
10Arsenal Dzerzhinsk30108122936-738
11Slavia MozyrSlavia Mozyr30811112833-535
12Smorgon30711123351-1832
13FC MinskFC Minsk30610142844-1628
14Naftan30511142744-1726
15Dnepr Mogilev3039182758-3118
16Shakhtyor SoligorskSoligorsk3057181945-262


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