Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Genk win with a probability of 65.78%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Standard Liege had a probability of 14.82%.
The most likely scoreline for a Genk win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.97%) and 2-1 (9.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.14%), while for a Standard Liege win it was 0-1 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Genk would win this match.