Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a BATE Borisov win with a probability of 49.7%. A draw had a probability of 26% and a win for Dinamo Brest had a probability of 24.32%.
The most likely scoreline for a BATE Borisov win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.55%) and 2-1 (9.25%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.28%), while for a Dinamo Brest win it was 0-1 (8.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 1.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that BATE Borisov would win this match.