Two teams who appeared to be comfortably positioned to remain in the Campeonato Brasileiro Serie A now find themselves desperate to hold onto their current positions as Athletico Paranaense host Cuiaba on Friday from Arena da Baixada.
The Copa Sudamericana champions have dropped three of their previous four league matches and are only two points clear of the relegation zone, while the club from Mato Grosso have only won one of their last six league fixtures, currently sitting only a point above El Paranaense in the table.
Match preview
© Reuters
Furacao may still be soaking up their cup triumph from last month as it seems like they have lost their focus in the league and, as a result, have continued to slide down the table.
They have failed to score in back-to-back top flight encounters and have looked disjointed and disinterested in both of those games, accumulating 29 and 34% possession respectively versus Sao Paulo and Corinthians, firing only two shots on target, both of which came in their 1-0 defeat on Sunday.
Having already captured a trophy this year and with a shot at another one this month, facing Atletico Mineiro in the Copa do Brasil final, many have said that this club deserves to be considered an elite Brazilian side, but their recent form in Serie A would suggest otherwise.
In their previous eight top-flight campaigns, they have only finished in the bottom half of the table once, and this is by far the closest that they have come over that stretch to dropping down into Serie B.
Alberto Valentim has employed a style of coming back to cover opposing players with tight marking and waiting for the right opportunity to strike, but in their last three Serie A matches, they have waited far too long, only firing three shots on target combined over that stretch.
© Reuters
Another side who looked to be in a comfortable spot to remain in the top flight beyond 2021 were Dourado, who had a difficult month of November, winning only two of their seven league affairs.
Jorginho has stuck with the same approach of hanging back and countering quickly throughout the year, but when you find yourself trailing by a pair of goals in the opening half an hour like they were on Tuesday versus Palmeiras, that strategy goes out the window.
They usually have a few scoring chances each game, except their precision in front of goal has let them down of late, finding the back of the net on only two occasions in their last three games.
Seeing as this is their first campaign in the top flight, many expected this team to be near the bottom of the table, and until recently they had not faced a lot of adversity this season.
What has hurt them the most is an inability to keep the teams behind them down, as they have draws versus Bahia, Chapecoense and Gremio over the past couple of months.
- W
- W
- L
- L
- D
- L
- W
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
- D
- L
- L
- W
- D
- L
Team News
© Reuters
On Sunday, Valentim went with a 3-4-3 setup, making two changes to the starting 11 with Christian and Pedro Rocha getting the call in the attack instead of David Terans and Renato Kayzer.
Nikao is the last player to score a goal for El Paranaense, which happened in the Copa Sudamericana final, and he has contributed three this year domestically, putting him in a three-way tie for third on the team along with Pedro Rocha, Guilherme Bissoli and Matheus Babi, who will not be eligible to play in this game after undergoing cruciate ligament surgery.
Alan Empereur scored his first goal of the domestic campaign for Cuiaba earlier this week, unfortunately though it was not enough as Walter conceded on three of the five shots that he faced, as they dropped a 3-1 decision to Palmeiras.
Cuiaba won the opening game between these sides thanks to a Clayson strike in the 61st minute as he is currently one back of Jonathan Cafu and Pepe for third on the team, having scored two times domestically.
Athletico Paranaense possible starting lineup:
Santos; Nicolas, Heleno, Henrique; Abner, Erick, Cittadini, Marcinho; Terans, Bissoli, Nikao
Cuiaba possible starting lineup:
Walter; Lucas, Paulao, Empereur, Hernandez; Cabrera, Camilo, Pepe, Clayson; Elton, Jenison
We say: Athletico Paranaense 1-0 Cuiaba
This will be a tough match to call, but Paranaense know what it takes to remain in the top flight, and even though they have not experienced the kind of danger that they are in right now, they possess a lot of individual quality that can make the difference.
Cuiaba have had a decent campaign considering it is their first experience playing at this level, but all of this is brand new to them, and it appears as though the pressure is starting to get to them.
Top tip
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Athletico Paranaense win with a probability of 51.47%. A draw had a probability of 26.3% and a win for Cuiaba had a probability of 22.26%.
The most likely scoreline for an Athletico Paranaense win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.93%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.37%) and 2-1 (9.13%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.26%), while for a Cuiaba win it was 0-1 (8.24%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Athletico Paranaense in this match.
