Colombian side Atletico Junior will host Bolivian outfit Bolivar in the second leg of their third qualifying round tie of the Copa Libertadores on Thursday evening.
The visitors take a 2-1 advantage to the Estadio Metropolitano and will be looking to reach the group stages for the third time in four years.
Match preview
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Atletico Junior manager Luis Amaranto Perea is likely to be feeling that his side are fortunate that there is only a one-goal margin separating the two teams heading into the second leg.
In a game which saw Bolivar have 31 shots on goal and only seven on target, strikes from Leonardo Ramos and Diego Bejarano, either side of German Mera's effort, were enough to seal a narrow victory in La Paz.
Since last week's first leg, Junior have played out a goalless draw away at Deportivo Pasto in the Categoria Primera A, leaving them in seventh place, but only two points behind league leaders Atletico Nacional.
The Sharks have reached the Copa Libertadores group stages in each of the last three seasons and with only one goal separating the two sides, there is still every possibility that the Colombians can keep this run going and turn the tie around.
Bolivar head coach Natxo Gonzalez knows his side should be leading this tie by a much greater margin and he can only hope that the missed opportunities in the first leg do not come back to haunt them.
Since last week's result, La Academia struggled to break down fellow Bolivian side Independiente Petrolero, but a 91st-minute winner from Cesar Menacho helped secure a narrow 1-0 league victory, moving them into the top four of the Liga de Futbol Profesional Boliviano.
After beginning their 2021 campaign with three away defeats, Bolivar have since responded with five successive home victories, scoring 11 goals and conceding just once, which was against Atletico Junior.
Thursday's match in Barranquilla will be their first on the road in over a month, but they will be looking to continue their good run of form and claim their first away win since February 2020.
Bolivar, who reached the semi-finals of the Copa Libertadores in 2013-14, have qualified for the group stages in three of the last four seasons. They will be slight favourites as they go into the second leg with a narrow lead and with their current form, Gonzalez will fancy his chances of guiding La Academia to another victory.
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Team News
Bolivar boss Gonzalez may decide to make alterations to his starting lineup from the team that beat Independiente Petrolero last weekend.
Ramos is expected to replace Armando Sadiku in attack, while either Luis Alberto Gutierrez or Alberto Guitian will partner Jairo Quinteros in central defence.
Central midfielder Alex Granell could keep his place alongside Leonel Justiniano and forward Bruno Miranda will be hoping to start ahead of John Garcia, who he replaced as a substitute in the first leg.
For Atletico Junior, Perea could start with the same back four of Fabian Viafara, Willer Ditta, Mera and Edwin Velasco as he did for the first leg.
Homer Martinez is expected to start in a holding midfield role with Larry Vasquez and Didier Moreno given more license to roam further in front.
Striker Teofilo Gutierrez, who has four goals this season, is set to lead the line in attack, while Jhon Pajoy could be replaced on the right flank by Luis Gonzalez.
Atletico Junior possible starting lineup:
Viera; Viafara, Ditta, Mera, Velasco; Martinez; Gonzalez, Vasquez, Moreno, Hinestroza; Teolilo
Bolivar possible starting lineup:
Rojas; Bejarano, Quinteros, Guitian, Fernandez; Granell, Justiniano; Saavedra, Rodriguez; Miranda; Ramos
We say: Atletico Junior 1-1 Bolivar
Bolivar have failed to win any of their last nine away matches in all competitions, which could give Atletico Junior belief that they can turn this tie around.
However, a draw is all the visitors need to progress to the group stages and with little to separate the two South American teams, we can see a score draw played out in Barranquilla.
Top tip
Oliver Thomas
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atletico Junior win with a probability of 51.01%. A win for Bolivar had a probability of 25.73% and a draw had a probability of 23.3%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atletico Junior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Bolivar win was 1-2 (6.51%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 4.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Atletico Junior would win this match.
