Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Galatasaray win with a probability of 52.53%. A win for Monaco had a probability of 25.47% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Galatasaray win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.54%) and 0-2 (7.35%). The likeliest Monaco win was 2-1 (6.4%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 5% likelihood.