Arsenal take on Brighton & Hove Albion on the final day of the Premier League season with it all to play for in their bid to qualify for Europe.
The Gunners are battling with Everton and Tottenham Hotspur for seventh place, which would earn them a spot in the inaugural Europa Conference League.
Match preview
© Reuters
Not since 1995-96 have Arsenal gone a season without European football, but that is a real possibility in 2021-22 on the back of a poor first full campaign under Mikel Arteta.
However, the Spaniard could yet salvage the Gunners' season somewhat should results go his side's way on the final day, with seventh place now Arsenal's target.
A late 3-1 victory at Crystal Palace on Wednesday made it four league wins in a row for Arsenal, either side of being eliminated from the Europa League by former boss Unai Emery.
Gabriel Martinelli's goal and a Nicolas Pepe brace at Selhurst Park ensures that Arsenal can still overtake Tottenham and Everton, who are both positioned one point better off.
The Conference League may hardly be a competition Arsenal supporters dream of playing in, but it will at least ensure that they have some continental football to look forward to.
For that to happen, Arteta's men realistically need to win on Sunday and hope that Spurs and Everton drop points against Leicester City and Manchester City respectively.
Winning on the final day is something that comes naturally to Arsenal, having picked up maximum points on matchday 38 in each of the last nine campaigns.
© Reuters
While the North London side have plenty on the line this weekend, Brighton can afford to relax as they have long been assured of Premier League safety.
Since that was made official a couple of weeks ago, the Seagulls have drawn 1-1 against West Ham and defeated Man City 3-2 in an entertaining game last time out.
Brighton had a man advantage for 81 minutes and eventually made it count as they recovered from two goals down to claim a win that takes them to 41 points for the season.
That matches their tally from last season, and they require just one point at the Emirates Stadium to make this their best ever Premier League season in terms of points accrued.
Albion won this fixture 2-1 last season - their first ever top-flight away win against Arsenal - and have avoided defeat in five of their seven Prem meetings with the Gunners.
- D
- L
- W
- W
- W
- W
- L
- W
- D
- W
- W
- W
- D
- L
- W
- L
- D
- W
Team News
© Reuters
Arsenal have near enough a fully-fit squad to choose from on Sunday, with David Luiz and Hector Bellerin their only confirmed fitness doubts.
Granit Xhaka was fit enough to appear from the bench in the win over Palace and is in line to return to the XI here, likely at the expense of Mohamed Elneny.
Martinelli is another in contention to return after scoring a crucial goal at Selhurst Park, while Alexandre Lacazette and Martin Odegaard are also fresh for the final day.
After his double in midweek, Pepe is looking to score in three consecutive games in all competitions for the first time in his Arsenal career.
As for Brighton, they will welcome Lewis Dunk back after the centre-back completed a two-match suspension in the win over Man City, but forward Neal Maupay is still banned.
Danny Welbeck has hit form in recent weeks but will miss out on a reunion against Arsenal due to a hamstring problem, possibly paving the way for Andi Zeqiri to make a rare start.
Leandro Trossard scored as a substitute against the champions and is another in contention for a recall, with Graham Potter expected to stick with a back three.
Arsenal possible starting lineup:
Leno; Chambers, Holding, Gabriel, Tierney; Xhaka, Partey; Pepe, Odegaard, Saka; Aubameyang
Brighton & Hove Albion possible starting lineup:
Sanchez; White, Dunk, Webster; Gross, Bissouma, Lallana, Burn; Mac Allister, Trossard; Zeqiri
We say: Arsenal 2-1 Brighton & Hove Albion
Given that Tottenham face Leicester and Everton travel to Man City on the final day, Arsenal have a strong chance of finishing in seventh spot with victory this weekend.
The Gunners have not won five Premier League games in a row since October 2018 but, while Brighton did stun Man City in midweek, we can see them claiming all three points here.
Top tip
Video prediction
Watch the Sports Mole Football Shorts prediction for this game below:
Daniel Lewis
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 47.98%. A win for Brighton & Hove Albion had a probability of 26.45% and a draw had a probability of 25.6%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.4%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.3%) and 2-0 (8.72%). The likeliest Brighton & Hove Albion win was 0-1 (7.95%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.16%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
