Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Estudiantes win with a probability of 42.32%. A win for Gimnasia had a probability of 29.13% and a draw had a probability of 28.54%.
The most likely scoreline for a Estudiantes win was 0-1 with a probability of 13.39%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (8.36%) and 1-2 (8.23%). The likeliest Gimnasia win was 1-0 (10.55%) , while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.17%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 13.4% likelihood.