Antalyaspor and Istanbul Basaksehir meet in the Turkish Super Lig on Sunday, with both sides sitting just above the relegation zone.
Both teams are on nine points after the opening nine games of the season, one point above the bottom four, with the hosts in 15th and the visitors in 14th.
Match preview
It is a first home game in charge for Antalyaspor boss Nuri Sahin, who replaced Ersun Yanal at the start of the month.
The former Real Madrid midfielder had been part of the club's playing squad, but has now confirmed his retirement to focus solely on coaching.
Sahin's first match at the helm was a 2-2 draw away at Sivasspor, with all the goals coming in a frantic first half.
After surviving relegation by just four points last season, Antalyaspor have only won two of their first nine games of the new campaign, but both of those victories have come on home turf.
Sahin will hope that the next week will give his side a much-needed confidence boost, as they face third tier Diyarbekirspor in the cup on Thursday before hosting newly-promoted Giresunspor next Monday.
Istanbul Basaksehir are also entering a new era under the guidance of legendary Turkish midfielder Emre Belozoglu, who succeeded Aykut Kocaman at the start of the month.
Belozoglu's only previous managerial experience came as interim boss of Fenerbahce at the end of last season, but he only lost one of 10 games in charge.
Having made the move across Istanbul, to a club where he spent four years as a player, Belozoglu earned an impressive 3-2 win over city rivals Besiktas in his first game in charge of the Gray Owls.
Now Istanbul Basaksehir – who were Super Lig champions in 2020 – will go in search of back-to-back victories for the first time this season, but they have lost all four of their away games so far.
Basaksehir are unbeaten in their last 11 games against Antalyaspor, winning nine of those. The Scorpions have not been victorious in this fixture since 2016.
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Team News
Antalyaspor remain without Andrea Poli, who picked up an injury against Adana Demirspor three weeks ago.
Nuri Sahin switched systems to a three-man defence for his first game in charge and is likely to continue with this set up.
Fredy's goal against Sivasspor last weekend was his first since the opening day of the season; Haji Wright is the only other player in the squad to net more than once in 2021-22.
Emre Belozoglu could name an unchanged Istanbul Basaksehir team after victory over Besiktas last weekend.
Fredrik Gulbrandsen came off the bench to score against the Black Eagles, so he is the most likely to come into the side if Belozoglu does decide to switch things around.
Stefano Okaka has netted six goals in six games since signing from Udinese in the summer, making him the second-highest scorer in the Turkish Super Lig.
Antalyaspor possible starting lineup:
Boffin; Sari, Naldo, Kudryashov; Balci, Ozmert, Fredy, Vural; Amilton, Wright, Sinik
Istanbul Basaksehir possible starting lineup:
Babacan; Caicara, Ndayishimiye, Epureanu, Lima; Tekdemir; Visca, Chadli, Ozcan, Turuc; Okaka
We say: Antalyaspor 1-2 Istanbul Basaksehir
With two rookie managers going head to head, it is difficult to know quite what to expect from this fixture. Istanbul Basaksehir got off to the perfect start under Belozoglu and possess more quality in their side, so we think the visitors will just edge victory.
Top tip
Olly Allen
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Istanbul Basaksehir win with a probability of 49.86%. A draw had a probability of 25.8% and a win for Antalyaspor had a probability of 24.36%.
The most likely scoreline for a Istanbul Basaksehir win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (9.48%) and 1-2 (9.3%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.21%), while for an Antalyaspor win it was 1-0 (8.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Istanbul Basaksehir would win this match.
