Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Erzgebirge Aue win with a probability of 39.27%. A win for Karlsruher SC had a probability of 34.35% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Erzgebirge Aue win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.06%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.47%) and 2-0 (6.8%). The likeliest Karlsruher SC win was 0-1 (9.28%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.54%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 10.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Erzgebirge Aue in this match.
