Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Rayo Vallecano win with a probability of 45.26%. A draw had a probability of 27.7% and a win for Espanyol had a probability of 27.04%.
The most likely scoreline for a Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.93%) and 2-1 (8.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.9%), while for a Espanyol win it was 0-1 (9.64%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood.