Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Nicaragua win with a probability of 85.64%. A draw had a probability of 10.2% and a win for Saint Lucia had a probability of 4.19%.
The most likely scoreline for a Nicaragua win was 2-0 with a probability of 13.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.09%) and 4-0 (9.68%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (4.84%), while for a Saint Lucia win it was 0-1 (1.64%).