Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Manchester City Women win with a probability of 44.35%. A win for Aston Villa Women had a probability of 31.64% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Manchester City Women win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.13%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.17%) and 0-2 (6.73%). The likeliest Aston Villa Women win was 2-1 (7.52%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.08%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Manchester City Women would win this match.
