Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 55.15%. A win for Stade Lausanne-Ouchy had a probability of 23.5% and a draw had a probability of 21.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (7.61%) and 0-1 (7.48%). The likeliest Stade Lausanne-Ouchy win was 2-1 (6.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.49%). The actual scoreline of 2-5 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that St Gallen would win this match.