After nearly two weeks of qualifying action, Solomon Islands and New Zealand will battle it out for a place in the World Cup 2022 inter-confederation playoffs.
The Solomon Islands are dreaming of featuring at the World Cup for the first time in their history, while New Zealand bidding to make their third appearance at the biggest tournament in football.
Match preview
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The Solomon Islands have experienced a slightly more tumultuous campaign then their opponents, as their qualifying group was affected by COVID-19 outbreaks in the respective squads of Vanuatu and the Cook Islands.
Vanuatu had to withdraw before qualifying got underway, while the Cook Islands had to pull out after experiencing a number of positive tests in their squad after their group opener.
As a result, the Solomon Islands saw their 2-0 win over the Cook Islands voided, but they did end the group phase on a high, as they cruised to a 3-1 win against Tahiti to secure top spot in Group A thanks to a Raphael Lea'i hat-trick.
The drama did not end in the group stage though, with Felipe Vega-Arango's side edging out Papua New Guinea in a five-goal thriller to book their place in Wednesday's final.
An Alwin Hou brace turned the semi-final contest on its head after Alwin Komolong had given Papua New Guinea the lead before Lea'i found the net to double the advantage, and although Ati Kepo pulled one back with just two minutes to play, the Solomon Islands survived a nervy finale to keep their World Cup dreams alive.
As for New Zealand, they are bidding to qualify for the World Cup for the first time since 2010, and they enter Wednesday's contest in imperious form after winning all four of their games in qualifying.
A Ben Waine goal proved enough to dispatch Papua New Guinea in their group opener before they thrashed Fiji 4-0 thanks to a brace from Newcastle United's Chris Wood with Elijah Just and Clayton Lewis also getting their names on the scoresheet.
With the New Zealand squad oozing confidence, they made light work of New Caledonia in their final group fixture as Wood added two more goals to his qualifying tally in a destructive 7-1 victory.
Danny Hay's side did, however, make hard work of their semi-final clash with Tahiti, with the encounter remaining goalless until the 71st minute, with Liberato Cacace finding the net to book New Zealand's passage to the final.
The five-time OFC Nations Cup winners will know that they are just two games away from securing their ticket to Qatar, and if they manage to negotiate Wednesday's tricky encounterm they will enter a playoff with the team that finishes in fourth place in the third round of CONCACAF qualifying.
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Team News
At this late stage of the tournament, Vega-Arango is expected to keep changes to a minimum, although after coming on at half time in the semi-final victory, Leon Kofana could come into the backline.
Hou has scored three goals in qualifying, while Raphael Lea'i has netted on four occasions, and the pair will be crucial to the Solomon Islands if they are to beat New Zealand on Wednesday.
Like their opponents, New Zealand will prioritise continuity as they prepare for the final, which could result in Hay naming an unchanged lineup for Wednesday's contest against the Solomon Islands.
Wood is the country's all-time topscorer and after netting four goals in qualifying, Hay will be looking for the Newcastle forward to lead his nation to glory.
Solomon Islands possible starting lineup:
Mango; Kalu, Kofana, Aengari, Tahunipue; Lea'i, Kaua, Komasi, Hou; Nawo, Lea'alafa
New Zealand possible starting lineup:
Marinovic; Tuiloma, Pijnaker, Reid; Kirwan, Garbett, Just, Bell, Cacace; McCowatt, Wood
We say: Solomon Islands 0-1 New Zealand
With so much at stake, we do not expect Wednesday's encounter to be a free-flowing affair, but with New Zealand ranked 31 places higher in the FIFA World Rankings than the Solomon Islands, we think that Hay's side will have enough quality to edge out their opponents.
Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Solomon Islands win with a probability of 46.82%. A win for New Zealand had a probability of 28.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Solomon Islands win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.11%) and 2-0 (7.51%). The likeliest New Zealand win was 1-2 (7.08%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that New Zealand would win this match.
