Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Krylia Sovetov win with a probability of 49.24%. A draw had a probability of 26.6% and a win for Nizhny Novgorod had a probability of 24.13%.
The most likely scoreline for a Krylia Sovetov win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.75%) and 2-1 (9.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.47%), while for a Nizhny Novgorod win it was 0-1 (8.61%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Krylia Sovetov would win this match.