Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Montenegro win with a probability of 44.13%. A win for Romania had a probability of 29.45% and a draw had a probability of 26.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Montenegro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.92%) and 2-0 (8.04%). The likeliest Romania win was 0-1 (8.84%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Montenegro would win this match.