Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 52.7%. A win for Chorley had a probability of 23.71% and a draw had a probability of 23.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.19%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.75%) and 2-0 (8.91%). The likeliest Chorley win was 0-1 (6.38%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.14%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that York City would win this match.
